Forex Currency Exchange Rates
Author: Rob Trader
EUR/USD
The Technical Picture:
EUR/USD again made a new 10-month low last week, this time at 1.3444, within its recent decline, and thereby keeping its outlook bearish. The rate remains well below its 200-day MA now at 1.4346, but with the 14-day RSI skirting oversold territory at 36, some consolidation may be in order below the declining trend line at 1.3716.
Furthermore, the latest low has approached the 1.236 projection of the move from 1.5144 to 1.4217 projected off the reaction high of 1.4579, with additional Fibonacci projection levels of 1:1.382 = 1.3298, 1:1.5000= 1.3189 and 1:1.618 at 1.3079 now potentially coming into play.
Now trading at 1.3594, support for EUR/USD comes in at 1.3531, 1.3423/44 and 1.3246, while resistance to the topside can be found at 1.3654, in the 1.3788 to 1.3839 congestion region, and at 1.4026.
USD/JPY
The Technical Picture:
USD/JPY saw an upside break of converging trend lines around the psychological 90.00 level last week that prompted the expected rise in volatility mentioned last week. Nevertheless, the rate remains just below its 200-day MA now at 92.32 where a break could see the rate trade considerably higher. It currently seems very likely that the downward move from 84.80 to 93.77 has ended at 88.54, just above its
61.8% Fibo retracement target at 88.23.
Now look for the most recent move from 93.77 to 88.54 to retrace the preceding downward move and also to project the preceding upward move from the intervening low at 88.54. Since the current up move to 92.14 has already exceeded the 61.8% retracement level, this indicates that a 100% retrace back to 93.77 is now likely. With respect to projections, the 38.2% at 91.97 has now given way to USD/JPY strength, so the next 50% target comes into play at 93.02, with the 61.8% at 94.08 and the 100% at 97.51. Rising trend line support comes in at 90.19, and while the 14-day RSI is not yet in overbought territory at 59, USD/JPY is trading near the top of its upper Bollinger band which might slow the expected rise.
Now trading at 91.60, additional resistance shows at 92.03/14, 93.77, and 95.05, while support shows at 91.26, 90.56 and 88.54.
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About the Author
Rob Trader - Forex Expert
